Although overshadowed by the recent run of blockbuster trades, major free agent signings, and never-ending rumors, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America made some news this week by announcing the names of the 29 retired players featured on the 2006 Hall of Fame ballot. Since this shapes up as the thinnest ballot in recent memory, we could very well be looking at the first shutout by the baseball writers since 1996, when the Association saw fit to elect no one to Cooperstown.

My feeling—based in part on gut reaction and in part on conversations with Hall of Fame sources—is that no one will be elected from this ballot either. I think Bruce Sutter will come the closest; he’ll likely receive somewhere from about 70 to 73 per cent of the ballot, leaving him just short of the minimum 75 per cent needed for election. Rich Gossage will fall in line behind Sutter, somewhere between 65 and 70 per cent of the vote. After the two premier closers, no one else on the ballot will come close to election. That includes the three headliners among the 14 first-year eligibles—Albert Belle, Dwight Gooden, and Orel Hershiser. Each of these rookie candidates was a dominant player in his own right, but Gooden and Hershiser lacked the longevity required for enshrinement in Cooperstown, while Belle will lose major points on the issues of character, sportsmanship, and relations with the media.

Although the writers will likely cast a shutout this year, there are at least five men on the ballot who deserve to be elected. If I had a vote—and let me emphasis that I do not, though I can always dream—I would check off the following names for enshrinement in Cooperstown:

Bert Blyleven: For too long now, Blyleven has been underrated by the masses, undermined by the mediocre teams he played for and a steady lack of run support. Given a better supporting cast during his years in Minnesota, Texas, and Cleveland, Blyleven easily would have won 300 games, instead of finishing with the less glamorous total of 287 victories. As it was, Blyleven compiled 90 shutouts—ranking him ninth on the all-time list—and won a remarkable 15 games by the score of 1-0. He also had the best curveball of his generation, a pitch that was as dominant as Sutter’s split-fingered fastball and Gossage’s riding heater.

Rich Gossage: He was a closer in the old-fashioned sense, often earning saves by pitching two or three innings at a time, rather than the one required of most current-day closers. The “Goose” was a dominant reliever from 1978 through 1985, giving three different teams—the Pirates, the Yankees, and Padres—an overpowering bullpen presence in the eighth and ninth innings. His performance in the strike-shortened season of 1981 has received little publicity; he posted an 0.77 ERA in just over 46 innings. And for what it’s worth, Gossage was fun to watch, his arms and legs flailing as he rared back and pounded fastballs into the upper regions of the strike zone.

Dale Murphy: Probably the toughest choice for me to make, Murphy is a close call because of the way his career plummeted after 1987. Still, Murphy was arguably the game’s best player for a span of three seasons (1983 to 1985), led the league eight times in important offensive categories, and earned credit for being one of the game’s good people, well-liked and respected by teammates and the media.

Jim Rice: I’ve heard all of the Sabermetric arguments supporting the contention that Rice doesn’t belong: the lack of walks, the propensity for hitting into double plays, and the favorable hitting conditions of Fenway Park. Those are all legitimate points, but they shouldn’t obscure the contention that Rice was probably the second most feared hitter in the game (behind only Mike Schmidt) from 1977 to 1979. In addition to leading the league in major offensive categories nine times, Rice was also an effective defensive left fielder at Fenway Park; through hard work and repetition, he became skilled at handling the caroms and bounces of “The Wall.”

Alan Trammell: Underrated by those younger fans who didn’t see him play, Trammell is hurt by the recent major league trend toward power hitting shortstops. In his 1980s hey day, Trammell was the second best hitter among shortstops, ranking behind only Robin Yount, a certified Hall of Famer. Although Trammell lacked Yount’s level of power, he was a superior defender, winning four Gold Gloves along the way. His postseason performance in 1984 doesn’t hurt the argument for election either; he batted .362 in the ALCS and .450 in the World Series, earning MVP honors for the latter performance.

Although several Mets scouts have filed negative reports on Bengie Molina’s defensive play, general manager Omar Minaya has prepared an offer that would pay Molina $8 million per season over the span of a three-year deal. Despite the questions about a decline in Molina’s defensive reactions (he looked great in the postseason but had problems during the regular season), Minaya likes his rapport with pitchers, quiet clubhouse leadership, and improving bat. If contract talks with Molina break down, then—and only then—will Minaya will make an offer to the other free agent catching prize, Ramon Hernandez. Two years younger than Molina, Hernandez is regarded by many talent evaluators as the best free agent catcher on this year’s market… A third catching option for the Mets could be Paul LoDuca, but he figures to be traded by the time the Mets sort out the Hernandez/Molina situation. As the next Marlin to be sacrificed as part of a furious winter firesale, LoDuca figures to draw interest from several catching-needy teams… And then there’s Toby Hall, one of several Devil Rays who is very much available. The Rays would love to deal their starting catcher to the Mets for Aaron Heilman, but that proposal has already been rejected by Minaya—and wisely… LoDuca aside, the Mets may not be done dealing with the Marlins. Minaya has talked to Marlins general manager Larry Beinfest about Luis Castillo, a potential leadoff man for the Mets who could fill the gaping second base hole at Shea Stadium. The Mets are also continuing to talk to the Rangers about Alfonso Soriano, who would be a more glamorous pickup than Castillo but wouldn’t help the Mets in their quest for a true leadoff man…

While the Marlins are in full contract-dumping mode, the Padres seem to be in contract-avoiding mode. Already in a position to lose both Hernandez and Trevor Hoffman to free agency, the Padres’ chances of re-signing Brian Giles seem to be dwindling. They’ve balked at offering Giles the three-year, $30 million contract that he wants to remain in Southern California. That’s good news for the free-spending Cardinals, Cubs, and Yankees, all of whom have interest in Giles (though the Cardinals are curiously focusing on pitching in the early part of the Hot Stove season). Yet, Cardinals, Cubs, and Yankees can’t give Giles what he really wants, which is the geography of the West Coast. Along those lines, don’t be surprised if the Dodgers end up signing Giles. They’ve shown some preliminary interest, which could grow once they trade or non-tender Milton Bradley…

Now that the Phillies have stockpiled center fielders—the steal of Aaron Rowand gives them three viable options, along with solid backup Jason Michaels and top prospect Shane Victorino—they’ve begun talks with the Yankees about making a trade for some pitching. The Phils would love to add Shawn Chacon to a thinning staff that could lose both Billy Wagner and Ugueth Urbina, but might settle for Aaron Small in a deal for Michaels. The Yankees’ preference would be to unload Carl Pavano, but that would require a financial commitment (i.e. eating some nasty-tasting contract) on their part; besides, Pavano is strictly a starter, whereas the Phillies would prefer a more versatile pitcher like Chacon or Small, both of whom have recent experience out of the bullpen… Would Michaels be a legitimate answer to the Yankees’ center field woes? The answer here is yes. In fact, some folks in the Phillies’ organization thought that he should have been given the fulltime job in Philadelphia, rather than make trades for Kenny Lofton and Endy Chavez. Over the last two years, Michaels has compiled a respectable on-base percentage of .381 despite having to combat the perils of sporadic playing time. In the field, the 29-year-old Michaels is an above-average defender; though he lacks the sprinter’s speed that would be ideal for center field, he makes up for the deficiency with good jumps, a healthy dose of aggressiveness, and a strong throwing arm. Yes, the Yankees could manage with Michaels as the starter, backed up by the solid defense of Bubba Crosby… Michaels would be a more realistic acquisition than Ichiro Suzuki, who would likely cost the Yankees at least one (and possibly both) of their 2005 rookie contributors, Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. The Yankees don’t want to trade either, making a deal for Suzuki an improbability…

A number of teams are questioning the Cubs for their overly aggressive pursuit of free agent relief pitchers. By overpaying for two set-up men in their thirties (Scott Eyre and Bobby Howry, who cost a combined $23 million), the Cubs have raised the asking prices of all the other free agent middle men. The biggest beneficiary may be the talented but temperamental Kyle Farnsworth, who has now become a Yankee priority after Brian Cashman lost out on Howry, the pitcher he would have preferred because of his mental toughness and superior make-up… One of the most interesting players on the trade market is Devil Rays outfielder Joey Gathright, who is stuck behind Carl Crawford in left field and Rocco Baldelli in center. Gathright may be the fastest man in all of baseball; in fact, some scouts say he’s the fastest player the game has seen since Willie Wilson’s prime years. Now there are questions about Gathright. He has absolutely no power, which could make him an albatross once he starts to lose his foot speed. Some scouts also question whether he can play center field, wondering if he might be better off in left field. In spite of the questions, at least two teams are interested: the Angels and the Marlins. The Angels could replace aging center fielder with Gathright, whose speed fits in with the running game that Mike Scioscia prefers. The Marlins view Gathright as a younger and cheaper version of Juan Pierre, whom they would like to trade as quickly as possible.

On two different levels, I’m surprised to hear that the Marlins have agreed to make the Josh Beckett trade with the Red Sox. First, the package that the Rangers seemed willing to offer–Hank Blalock plus a top pitching prospect, either lefty John Danks or righty Thomas Diamond–looks a lot stronger on paper than the package the Red Sox will surrender–infield prospect Hanley Ramirez, pitching prospect Anabal Sanchez, and another pitching prospect, as yet unnamed. (Really, the difference between the two packages is Blalock vs. Ramirez, and wouldn’t you rather have Blalock?) Second, I’m amazed that the Red Sox’ front office was able to pull off the near blockbuster while operating without a fulltime general manager. At last count, six different men had turned down opportunities to interview for the position, but those rejections apparently did little in terms of preventing a committee of less heralded Sox staffers from making the arrangments on the Beckett deal.

No matter who deserves ultimate credit for making the trade, this was an exchange that the Red Sox had to make once the proposal was placed in their laps. I mean, how can you turn down the opportunity to acquire a 25-year-old pitcher with the stuff of a No. 1 starter and a pedigree that includes brilliant performance in the postseason, in particularly pitching a championship-clinching two-hitter on three days rest in the 2003 World Series? In acquiring just such a pitcher, the Red Sox didn’t have to surrender any players who figure to have an impact on their 25-man roster next year. No longer rated the organization’s top prospect, Ramirez is stuck behind Edgar Renteria at shortstop, and Sanchez appears to have receded on the Red Sox’ depth chart of pitching prospects, behind Jon Papelbon, Craig Hansen, and Jon Lester.

On a lesser note, the Red Sox can also afford to carry the slowing bat of Mike Lowell, who will apparently replace free agent Bill Mueller as the team’s starting third baseman. Even if Lowell’s 2005 decline at the plate can’t be reversed, he’s still an excellent fielding third baseman, something that the Red Sox need in order to improve their overall defense. Given the depth of the Red Sox’ lineup, they can hide Lowell in the eighth or ninth spot of the order without too much trepidation.

If Beckett can avoid the lingering blister problems that have plagued his young career and provide Boston with at least 30 starts and 180 innings, the Red Sox will have gone a long way toward repairing a rotation that doesn’t figure to have David Wells (likely to be traded) and doesn’t know what caliber of Curt Schilling will show in 2006. In the meantime, Marlins fans are left to wonder why the team didn’t get more for Beckett–specifically a ready-made young star in Hank Blalock.

In many ways, the rumored Josh Beckett-for-Hank Blalock deal makes sense for both of the interested trading partners. It would allow the Marlins to shed some of their payroll in the form of their most overpaid player (Mike Lowell), while adding a young star to their everyday lineup in Blalock, who reminds me more of a young George Brett every time I see him play. Blalock would also make it make it easier to trade their best left-handed hitter in Carlos Delgado, while giving new manager Joe Girardi some added flexibility with his remade infield. (Girardi could keep Blalock at third base, or he could return Miguel Cabrera to third base and slide Blalock over to first.) As for Beckett, he would fit in very neatly at the top of a Rangers rotation that needs quality pitching the way that Russell Crowe needs anger-management counseling (though I’ll always give him some leniency because of LA Confidential).

While it remains to be seen whether Lowell’s dreadful 2005 performance was the start of an inevitable decline toward retirement or just a one-year blip on an underrated career, the biggest X-factor in the deal remains Beckett. At his best, he’s a legitimate No. 1 starter for a championship contender; at his worst, he’s an immature right-hander who will spend two or three stints on the disabled list in a given year. Beckett’s biggest physical problems have involved persistent blisters on his pitching hand, a condition that might not be helped in Texas, where it’s no less humid and sweat-inducing than in Florida. Perhaps Beckett can place a call to Nolan Ryan, who might just have some pickle brine (that magical salve) left over from his days as a Ranger and Astro…

As part of the proposed deal, the Rangers would have to give up one of their two former No. 1 draft choices, left-hander John Danks or right-hander Thomas Diamond. The Marlins have smartly demanded that one of the two pitching prizes be included in a deal for Beckett…

There may be some hope in Pittsburgh after all. The Pirates’ decision to designate several "name" players for assignment, including disappointing second baseman Bobby "The King" Hill and onetime starting center fielder Tike Redman, indicates the start of two possible and positive trends. First, the Pirates are no longer going to give multiple opportunities to borderline prospects who don’t perform, and second, the organization needs to make room for some legitimate prospects on its 40-man winter roster. Unfortunately, the Pirates won’t be able to solve all of their many problems with minor league recalls (their regular lineup needs a first baseman, third baseman, outfielder, and catcher just for starters), but a foundation that features two left-handers like Zach Duke and Oliver Perez puts the Pirates’ rebuilding program several steps ahead of most other also-rans…

I love the New York Post sports section as much as anyone, but sometimes their analysis of the Yankees leaves something to be desired. Last week, Post reporter Michael Morrissey reported the Yankees’ interest in having better catching depth. "According to [Brian] Cashman," Morrissey wrote in last Thursday’s edition, "the Yankees need a backup catcher. That seems surprising; John Flaherty did well when he was entrusted with Randy Johnson’s starts last season. Johnson and Jorge Posada didn’t mesh." I’m sorry, but a catcher’s ability to massage Johnson during his 35 starts doesn’t justify his presence on a team’s 25-man roster, not when he hits .165 with no power, can’t get on base (.205 on-base percentage), and can’t throw out anyone trying to steal second base. Hey, if you’re going to have the next Tim McCarver (the famous caddy to Steve Carlton in the late 1970s), at least find someone who can bat left-handed and has some World Championship experience. Simply put, the aging Flaherty was one of the worst backup catchers in all of baseball last season. The Yankees could have found any of a half-dozen minor league catchers who could have caught Johnson just as well while hitting about 70 points higher than Flaherty. More than ever, the Yankees need a solid backup catcher in 2006 (one who can play upwards of 50 games) because of Jorge Posada’s decline as both a receiver and hitter. If Flaherty returns to the Yankees next season, it will be the first sign that Cashman has done little to improve what has been one of the worst benches in all of baseball the last four seasons… The Yankees reportedly have interest in Phillies free agent Todd Pratt, who’s better than "Flash" Flaherty, but at 39 years of age doesn’t figure to give the Yankees the kind of support they’ll need behind Posada.

At first, B.J. Ryan seemed primed and ready to sacrifice his closer’s role for an opportunity to set up Mariano Rivera in the Bronx. Well, not so fast. Ryan now appears unwilling to return to his old set-up role—even at a closer’s salary in New York—and looks instead like he may be heading to Detroit or Toronto to close out games for a team that has not contended in recent memory. The Tigers and Blue Jays have emerged as the favorites to sign Ryan, who will be only 30 years of age in 2006. Ryan’s relative youth, especially when compared to the advancing age of fellow free agent closers Trevor Hoffman (38 years old) and Billy Wagner (34), will convince the Tigers or Jays to give him a five-year contract that pays him upward of $40 million. If the Jays can pull off the signing, they’ll be adding Ryan to a pitching staff that will likely feature another high-priced pitcher with initials—A.J. Burnett, who also figures to command a five-year contract. That’s 10 years combined for two of the game’s most fragile commodities: a closer and an underachieving power pitcher… Actually, a lengthy contract for Ryan is somewhat understandable; he has terrific stuff and little history of arm trouble. The fragile Burnett is another story, though, given his lack of maturity, frequent trips to the disabled list, and inability to pitch well for the Marlins during the heat of this past summer’s National League wild card race…

If Ryan ends up signing quickly with the Jays or Tigers, the two best left-handed relievers on this year’s free agent market will be gone. In what will go down as one of the greatest overpays in free agent history, the Cubs signed middle-aged middle reliever Scott Eyre to a three-year contract worth $11 million. That’s quite a reward for Eyre’s career season in 2005, just one year after he posted a 4.10 ERA for the Giants and walked 27 batters in 52 innings. Eyre is not young either—he’ll turn 34 in May—and has never served as any team’s fulltime closer in the major leagues. In Chicago, he’ll become the primary set-up man for Ryan Dempster, another guy who picked the right time to have a career season—just before he could become a free agent… With Eyre and Ryan seemingly off the open market, the Yankees will have to turn elsewhere in their never-ending search for a competent left-handed reliever. The Yankees could sign former A’s lefty Ricardo Rincon, who’s coming off two consecutive off-seasons in the Bay Area. The Yankees’ best option might be in-house; lefthander Matt Smith impressed New York talent evaluators with a terrific slider during a season split between Columbus (Triple-A) and Trenton (Double-A). And then there’s always the possibility of convincing Al Leiter not to retire. After struggling in relief during the regular season, Leiter opened up some eyes with his command of Anaheim’s left-handed hitters during the American League Division Series…

A number of New York media sources are criticizing the Yankees for pursuing Brian Giles to play a position that he can’t handle every day—center field—but they may be missing the point. The Yankees, who are ready to offer Giles a three-year deal worth $33 million, could be thinking of Giles as their everyday right fielder in 2006. That would allow the Yankees to comfortably trade Gary Sheffield, either for some much-needed power bullpen help or perhaps as part of a deal for a real center fielder. Giles is also a better defensive right fielder than Sheffield, who sometimes looked like he was trying to catch darts as he sidesaddled even the most routine of fly balls in 2005… The Yankees’ No. 1 target on the center field front continues to be the White Sox’ Aaron Rowand. While the Yankees don’t have a direct match to make a trade with the White Sox—Chicago wants young talent and the Yankees don’t want to part with it—they will continue to pursue potential third teams to become involved in a more creative three-way deal. One team that the Yankees might involve is the Tigers, who are willing to part with the free-swinging Craig Monroe in order to make room for Curtis Granderson and Nook Logan as everyday outfielders. By sending the Tigers a package of pitching (which could include some combination of Shawn Chacon, Carl Pavano and/or Aaron Small), the Yankees might then flip Monroe and another player to the Sox for Roward. And then again, the Yankees could also give Monroe a shot at their everyday center field job. Monroe is better suited to play right field, but did appear in 33 games as a center fielder this past season, possesses above-average speed, and has been a productive hitter (61 home runs despite playing half the time at spacious Comerica Park) over the past three seasons…

The Cubs may have a completely different outfield in 2006–and given the performance of last year’s outfielders, that’s not a bad thing. The Cubs have had recent trade talks with the Rangers about left fielder Kevin Mench, talked repeatedly to the Marlins about center fielder Juan Pierre, and haven’t show much inclination toward signing last year’s right fielder, Jeromy Burnitz. Whatever the Cubs do, they’d be smart to include a young player like Matt Murton in the outfield picture, either in left field or right field.

On the surface, the rumored and anticipated swap of Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady makes little sense for the Mets. I mean, why would you trade a starting caliber outfielder (who has Gold Glove potential when healthy) for a unproven power hitter who may end up doing nothing more than being a right-handed platoon first baseman? And that’s in a league where there aren’t many left-handed starters to begin with. So what gives here from the Mets’ perspective?

A few scratches below the surface, however, show that Mets general manager Omar Minaya might still know what he’s doing. By trading the expensive Cameron (owed $7 million in 2006) for Nady (who stands to make well below $1 million), the Mets save about $6 million in payroll. And while you can’t actually “play money”—a concept that is sometimes forgotten by Sabermetric analysts who are obsessed with payroll—you can use the savings to defray the costs of other players who might be more helpful to the Mets next summer, such as a cleanup hitter like Carlos Delgado or Manny Ramirez, and a top-notch closer like Billy Wagner or Trevor Hoffman. Then there’s the age factor. Cameron will be 33 next year—and that’s a fragile 33 given the wrist, eye, and facial injuries that submarined his 2005 season—and he’s just the type of high-strikeout hitter who could decline quickly. In contrast, Nady just turned 27, an age that often coincides with the prime or breakthrough season of a player’s career. And then there’s the versatility factor, which is admittedly a lesser consideration, but still an important consideration. A center fielder by trade, Cameron had made it clear he no longer wanted to play right field in New York, putting the Mets in an uncomfortable position. In contrast, Nady can play all three of the outfield positions (though he doesn’t play center field very well), can man first base, and can even play a little third base in a pinch. That would give the Mets potential insurance at five different positions, bringing to mind the kind of versatility and depth the Mets had in a young Kevin Mitchell the last time the team won a World Championship.

There’s another factor that may be at play here, as well. While Cameron was the better player in 2005–and figures to be a nice fit patrolling center field at spacious Petco Park–Nady may be more attractive to other teams who look like potential trade partners for the Mets. For example, the Mets have had a number of talks with the Devil Rays about a variety of players, including first baseman Aubrey Huff, infielder Julio Lugo, and closer Danys Baez. As the Mets’ main veteran trading chip, Cameron would have produced little more than a tepid response from Tampa Bay; the Devil Rays don’t need a center fielder like Cameron, having just given a long-term commitment to the comebacking Rocco Baldelli. The Rays might, however, have more interest in a young power hitter like Nady, who could replace Huff and Travis Lee at first base or could take over in right field, flanked by Baldelli in center and Carl Crawford in left.

Like most trades, we won’t be able to evaluate the results for at least a full season, if not longer. And in this case, we won’t be able to pass all of our initial judgments on the trade until the next trade—one that might involve Nady himself—is made by Minaya.

For awhile now, it’s been assumed that Mike Piazza would sign a free agent contract with the Angels to serve as a part-time DH and occasional catcher, but that may not happen. The Angels first want to explore all of their options with Paul Konerko, the best power hitter on the market, a terrific clubhouse guy, and a player that manager Mike Scioscia is fond of from their days in the Dodgers’ organization. If the Angels can’t convince Konerko to come to southern California or can’t make a trade for Manny Ramirez, then they’ll turn to Piazza… In the meantime, the White Sox may swoop in on Piazza, whom they consider a good fit as a DH replacement for Carl Everett (the Sox don’t want him back at all), and as a backup catcher to A.J. Pierzynski. Piazza would DH most days, but could also spot Pierzynski behind the plate against tough left-handed pitchers. Signing with Chicago would also enable Piazza to continue playing in a major market, something he’s done for most of his career with the Mets and Dodgers…

While the Royals’ free agent pursuit of Rafael Furcal remains a pipe dream, the team has engaged itself in some more realistic Hot Stove endeavors. The Royals are very much interested in Rangers slugger Kevin Mench, who is certainly available in return for the right pitcher(s). Other than Zach Greinke, Denny Bautista, and Andy “The Kid” Sisco, the Royals would be willing to deal one or two of their young pitchers for Mench, who won’t turn 28 until January…

After flirting with glamorous names like Mike Schmidt and Bobby Valentine for their vacant managerial post, the Devil Rays appear to have narrowed their employment search to two relatively little known baseball lifers: Angels bench coach Joe Maddon or Tampa Bay’s own bench coach John McLaren. Neither Maddon or McLaren will sell many tickets, but both men are hard workers who have paid their dues as they await their first fulltime managerial position.

In the National League, the Cubs may have become the favorites to sign Rafael Furcal, the best all-around player in this year’s free agent class (sorry, Johnny Damon, Brian Giles, and Paul Konerko). Furcal would be a perfect fit for the Cubs, who need a shortstop and a leadoff man in the worst way and could solve both problems with one fell swoop of a signing. After the Cubs, the Mets and the Braves also figure to be strong contenders for the services of the switch-hitting Furcal. The Braves want to keep him, primarily because they doubt whether Wilson Betemit can play shortstop every day and have concerns over whether Tony Pena Jr. is ready to hit big league pitching. The Mets would love to add Furcal, even though they would have to convince him to move to the right on the infield diamond and play second base. That might be a tough selling job, but Mets GM Omar Minaya has already proved his prowess in luring Latino players to Queens. And with Piazza’s contract coming off the books, the Mets can offer Furcal a deal that falls into the “money-is-no-object” category…

If the Mets fail to sign Furcal, they’ll once again resuscitate trade talks with the Rangers about Alfonso Soriano. The Mets will have to offer pitching as part of any deal—Steve Trachsel and Aaron Heilman are possibilities—and might have to include young infield prospect Anderson Hernandez. As always, the problem with Soriano is his position. He plays second base like John Lowenstein, but remains reluctant to move to the outfield, where his skills are a better fit… A third option for the Mets could be Devil Rays infielder Julio Lugo, who has the kind of speed that fits into Willie Randolph’s running game. The Devil Rays will probably ask for one of the Mets’ top prospects, but the Mets will be cautious after the Scott Kazmir disaster… Along with Furcal/Soriano/Lugo, the Mets have also made Billy Wagner a high priority among offseason recruits. There are some concerns about the 34-year-old Wagner; he’s a self-proclaimed “country boy” who might not like the Big City and has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth with reporters, of whom there are many covering the Mets. Still, he survived Philadelphia’s mass media in recent years and has such a power arm that he could lose three to four miles off his fastball and still throw in the mid-nineties. With Wagner and Heilman potentially covering the last three innings of games, the Mets would have one of the best lefty-righty relief tandems in the National League…

Given Omar Minaya’s admiration for his talents and his desire for a true cleanup hitter, the Mets will make a big play for Manny Ramirez. They understand that the Red Sox are not interested in a salary dump, but instead want some legitimate talent to come back their way. Any Mets package for Ramirez will have to start with the trio of Mike Cameron, Aaron Heilman, and either one of two top prospects, pitcher Yusmeiro Petit or outfielder Lastings Milledge, who has been called a young Roberto Clemente in some quarters. Even then, the Red Sox might want another player for Ramirez, who’s arguably one of the 15 greatest hitters of all-time… Pity the next general manager in Boston who will have to try justifying the trade of the popular Ramirez to Boston’s rabid and ever-growing fan base…

While most of the free agent talk surrounding catchers involves Benjie Molina and Ramon Hernandez, a third receiver could receive considerable interest. Japanese League standout Kenji Jojima is also a free agent, eligible to talk to major league teams beginning on November 10. With so many teams looking for catching help (the Mariners, Yankees, Astros, and Mets, among others), Jojima could be looking at a decent three-year deal from the teams that lose out on Molina and Hernandez or are simply hoping for a less expensive alternative behind the plate. There have been some concerns about Jojima’s ability to communicate with English-speaking pitchers, but he reportedly had no problems handling American-born pitchers in recent seasons in Japan.

The Yankees are pretty good at the obvious move: trading for Randy Johnson last winter, signing Hideki Matsui three years ago, and keeping Mariano Rivera as far away from free agency as is humanly possible.

Things are different this winter. The Yankees’ most obvious need, other than stocking the bullpen and finding someone to ease Jorge Posada’s burden (or replace him entirely) behind the plate, remains the valley-sized hole in center field. Unfortunately, there are no obvious answers on the free agent front. At one time, Johnny Damon would have been perfect as the heir apparent to Bernie Williams, but Damon doesn’t throw much better than Williams these days and his range has diminished to the point that he figures to be a detriment by the end of any four or five-year contract that he inevitably signs. After Damon, the best proven center fielder on the free agent market is Preston Wilson, but he’s also on the wrong side of 30, ranks only average defensively, and makes contact about as often as Rob Deer. He also bats right-handed, which can be a problem for a hitter of his type at Yankee Stadium. Given the lack of obvious solutions, the Yankees may have to be creative in finding their next center fielder.

So what are the Yankees to do? With the lack of available help on the free market, the Yankees have given some early indications that they might give Bubba Crosby a long look in spring training. Well, that is not very creative, and that is certainly not the answer to the problem. Crosby is fine as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but stretched to the point of futility as an everyday player. Crosby has looked overmatched in many of his major league at-bats, especially against left-handers with above-average stuff. In the field, he’s an above-average center fielder and a big upgrade over the Williams of recent vintage, but he’s not a defensive standout, which is what you want from a player who hits as weakly (few walks, no power) as he has in the major leagues. When I think of Crosby as the Yankees’ regular center fielder, I start thinking about what it was like to watch Enrique Wilson as the everyday second baseman. And that’s not what the Yankees need.

Once again, creativity is needed. Here’s an idea. The Yankees should target the best all-around player on the free agent market, the player who would bring the team some much-needed range, athleticism, and youth. He’s not a center fielder, but he would still make the team better, and would allow the Yankees to shift another player to the outfield. The free agent is 27-year-old Rafael Furcal, who has the kind of physical attributes (good hands, low base, strong lower body) to make an easy transition to second base. By signing Furcal, the Yankees could then move Robinson Cano to center field, giving the athletic, strong-armed 23-year-old the chance to be the next standout center fielder in a long line of Yankee notables. Besides, the Yankees considered making Cano an outfielder in the minor leagues, and there are those in the organization who still think he will outgrow second base and will need to move to another position eventually.

Now, the move is not failsafe. Prone to mental lapses, Cano might not be able to make the transition to center field; he doesn’t have great speed and his arm, while powerful, could suffer in moving from the infield to the outfield. Still, there are other potential landing places for Cano. He could be moved to left field, which is less demanding than center field, at least away from the cavernous dimensions at Yankee Stadium. Or Cano could be moved to first base, a position that he should be able to handle with ease. While Cano might not currently seem capable of producing the big numbers a team wants at first base, he does have 25-home run potential and figures to be a lot more productive than someone like Ruben Sierra, who was mysteriously treated like an everyday player during the tail-end of the 2005 season.

In a worst-case scenario, Cano would flop in making the transition to the outfield, thereby hurting his development, but the Yankees would at least have the services of Furcal. The multitalented Furcal would give the Yankees better range in the middle infield, an intimidating baserunner capable of stealing 50 bases, and an excellent leadoff batter, which would in turn allow Derek Jeter to return to the second spot in the order and Alex Rodriguez to bat third or fourth, where they belong. Signing Furcal would take some work. He will have to be convinced to give up shortstop for second base and will probably want a four or five-year deal from the Yankees, who will then have to cross their fingers that Cano can switch positions.

It’s a gamble, it’s a move that will be questioned by the New York media, and it’s not the obvious solution to the Yankees’ biggest problem. But it’s the right move to make, if only the Yankees will show some creativity.

The Blue Jays have emerged as the odds-on favorites to sign A.J. Burnett, the most talented starter among this year’s skeletally-thin free agent market. In need of two quality starters (especially if they give up on Ted Lilly), the Jays are willing to overlook Burnett’s brutal finish to the regular season—a winless skid of seven starts that was pockmarked by an ERA of near 6.00—and his insolent attitude, which had him pointing fingers at everyone from Jack McKeon to the team secretaries. (Actually, I’m kidding about the latter, but Burnett’s all-encompassing blame game was borderline disgraceful.)… Signing with the Blue Jays would allow Burnett to rejoin Brad Arnsberg, his former pitching coach with the Marlins and a man with whom the right-hander has enjoyed a healthy relationship. Burnett also wouldn’t have to deal with the pressure of being a No. 1 starter, assuming that Roy “Doc” Halladay is able to return to good health… At one point, the Orioles seemed like the favorites to sign Burnett, but Baltimore executive Mike Flanagan has told some writers that Burnett’s late-season blowup, which forced the Marlins to send him home early, has soured him on the onetime Oriole trade target. With the Orioles out of the picture, the Red Sox and Tigers figure to provide the Blue Jays with the stiffest competition for Burnett. The Red Sox feel that their highly regarded pitching coach, Dave Wallace, coupled with the calming presence of Terry Francona, can help Burnett thrive in Beantown. As for the Tigers, they figure to spend boatloads of money this winter as part of an effort to move up in the improving American League Central…

The Orioles not only won’t sign Burnett, but they also figure to lose closer B.J. Ryan—and quite possibly to one of their American League East rivals. The Yankees are currently the favorites to land the 29-year-old Ryan, who is much younger than the two other elite closers on the market (34-year-old Billy Wagner and 38-year-old Trevor Hoffman). It appears the Yankees are willing to offer end-of-the-game money to Ryan to fill the duel roles of set-up man and late-inning, left-handed hammer. Given his relative youth, proven ability in the American League, and experience in a variety of bullpen roles, the Yankees view Ryan as a perfect fit for their razor-thin relief corps. A four-year contract in the neighborhood of $30 million could get the deal done, with Ryan becoming the bridge to Mariano Rivera before eventually taking over the closer’s role—whenever Rivera starts to show the decline that he amazingly continues to avoid… Some conspiracy theorists might be tempted to suggest that the Yankees’ hiring of four ex-managers for their coaching staff gives George Steinbrenner plenty of in-house candidates to replace Joe Torre in the case of an early-season collapse. In Oliver Stone’s world, that theory might fly, but not in reality, given the fact that Torre wanted Larry Bowa, Joe Kerrigan, Lee Mazzilli, and Tony Pena all to be added to his revamped staff. Besides, all four have had failed managerial stints, which makes them less desirable in The Boss’s eyes. Steinbrenner also prefers big names and New York connections in his future managers, and of the four listed above, only Maz has ties to New York (both as a coach and as an extremely popular player with the crosstown Mets). Even then, Mazzilli would rank no better than the third choice to replace Torre—well behind Steinbrenner’s top two candidates, Lou Piniella (1) and Don Mattingly (1-A). Mazzilli might even be the fourth choice, behind former Mets skipper Davey Johnson, who continues to be ignored by most major league franchises…

In the National League, the Cubs may have become the favorites to sign Rafael Furcal, the best all-around player in this year’s free agent class (sorry, Johnny Damon, Brian Giles, and Paul Konerko). Furcal would be a perfect fit for the Cubs, who need a shortstop and a leadoff man in the worst way and could solve both problems with one fell swoop of a signing. After the Cubs, the Mets and the Braves also figure to be strong contenders for the 27-year-old services of the switch-hitting Furcal. The Braves want to keep him, primarily because they doubt whether Wilson Betemit can play shortstop every day. The Mets would love to add him, even though they would have to convince Furcal to move to the right and play second base. That might be a tough selling job, but Mets GM Omar Minaya has already proved his prowess in luring Latino players to Queens. And with Mike Piazza’s contract coming off the books, the Mets can offer Furcal a deal that falls into the “money-is-no-object” category… Along with Furcal, the Mets have also made Billy Wagner a high priority among free agent recruits. There are some concerns about the 34-year-old Wagner; he’s a self-proclaimed “country boy” who might not like the Big City and has a tendency to put his foot in his mouth with reporters, of whom there are many covering the Mets. Still, he survived Philadelphia’s mass media in recent years and has such a power arm that he could lose three to four miles off his fastball and still throw in the mid-nineties. With Wagner and Aaron Heilman covering the last three innings of games, the Mets would have one of the best lefty-righty relief tandems in the National League.