The End of the Santana Sweepstakes

Is that all they got? That was my first reaction to hearing that the Twins had tentatively acquired four prospects—outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra—from the Mets for Johan Santana. Here’s my second and third reactions: Twins general manager Bill Smith should have taken one of the offers he received from the Red Sox and Yankees at the winter meetings in December, and the Mets just made themselves the clear favorites in the National League East.
The Twins should have insisted that the Mets part with Fernando Martinez, their No. 1 outfield prospect, who projects to have far more power than a slash-and-burn type player like Gomez. If the Mets had rejected that request, the Twins could have turned back to the Red Sox for their four-player package (headlined by Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury) or to the Yankees for their four-player offer (headlined by Phil Hughes). When you decide that you’re going to trade the No. 1 left-handed starter in the game, you have to insist on receiving one of the game’s top 20 to 30 prospects. Lester, Ellsbury, and Hughes all fall into that category. None of the players in the Mets’ package rate that highly; Gomez is the best of the bunch, but he’s an undisciplined, unrefined hitter who isn’t ready to hit major league pitching. And of the three pitchers the Mets will be surrendering, none seems like a cinch to break through as a top-of-the-line starter. Guerra has not pitched higher than A-ball, Mulvey is a control pitcher who lacks dominant stuff, and Humber has not regained the velocity that he had prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Assuming that the Mets can sign Santana to a five or six-year extension, their rotation suddenly has the look of a World Series participant. With Santana as the ace, Pedro Martinez can slide into the No. 2 slot, followed by the effective right-left combination of John Maine and Oliver Perez. The Mets now have some choices for No. 5; they can use Orlando Hernandez in that slot, or move him to set-up relief and create space for Mike Pelfrey, who was not sacrificed in the Santana deal. Hey, if “El Duque” is your fifth starter, you’re in good shape in these pitching-thin times.

While the Mets move from being a third-place contender to a first-place favorite, the Twins will have to settle for also-ran mode in the power-packed AL Central. They still have plenty of young pitching, but now need Francisco Liriano to make a quicker return from Tommy John surgery as a way of filling the role of stopper. They failed to improve their offense in trading Santana, and that should have been their top priority. They can rush Gomez, live with his offensive inconsistency and hope that he will at least ease the defensive burden on corner outfielders Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer. Or they can do the smart thing, which would involve sending Gomez to Triple-A and attempting to sign someone like Corey Patterson as a center field stopgap.

If there’s a lesson to be learned from the Twins’ two-month shopping of Santana, it’s this: the trade value of players, even superstars, does not necessarily continue to rise as more time passes. Teams can wait too long, past the moment that a player’s value reaches its peak, in dealing a franchise player. Unfortunately for their fans, the Twins have done just that.