It has become the latest rule of pitching—the “Rule of 30.” Championed by baseball writers like Tom Verducci, the rule is meant to limit the number of innings thrown by young pitchers, specifically those in the 25-and-under category. According to the “rule,” a developing pitcher should not be allowed to exceed his previous season’s innings total by more than 30. In other words, if a pitcher threw a combined 150 innings between the major leagues and the minor leagues in 2007, it is recommended that he not throw any more than 180 innings in 2008.
The Rule of 30 has become the primary motivation in the Yankees’ apparent decision to start Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen this season before eventually moving him to the top of the rotation. By limiting his early season innings totals, the Yankees hope to cap “Joba the Heat” at about 140 innings—or 30 more than the 112 frames he pitched last summer between New York and his various minor league stops.

I have no idea whether the Rule of 30 is a good idea. And why 30? I’m really not sure, though it does add up to one inning over each of roughly 30 starts. People involved in player personnel have only embraced the rule within the last five years; there really hasn’t been enough of a sampling to tell us whether it will be effective in limiting major pitching injuries to the 25-and-below crowd. Here’s what I do know. This is just the latest rule that managers and pitching coaches have to deal with in trying to handle and maintain a pitching staff. Back in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the five-man rotation became all the rage, mandating four days of rest between starts. Then came Tony LaRussa’s decision to limit his closer—Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley—to one inning in the 1980s, which resulted in a copycat handling of closers that continues to the current day. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, pitch counts became fashionable, reaching a point where 100 pitches has become the breaking point for many starters. (I’m not against pitch counts per se, but have serious questions about the seemingly arbitrary choice of 100 as a magic number.) And then came the decision to limit most relief pitchers to one inning per outing, essentially ridding the game of the onetime staff staple, the long reliever.

With the Rule of 30 being added to the list, we have now reached a saturation point with regard to the handling of major league pitching staffs. Managers now find their hands completely tied, so much so that they need to call on a minimum of three to four pitchers per game and need to have as many as 12 or 13 pitchers on a staff at any given time. (Oh for the days of the nine-man pitching staff!) As a result, weaker pitchers are populating the back end of the major league roster and are soaking up more innings as they show off their shortcomings. Given the glut of rules and restrictions, winning games has become secondary, on many an occasion, to the religious adherence to the regulations. Otherwise, the managers will face the wrath of their general managers, the fans, and Sabermetricians, though not necessarily in that order.

Perhaps these rules will limit the number of injuries we see to pitchers at the major league level. If it does, then there is some nobility to this cautious trend. But it has come at the cost of strangling managers, to the point of making their jobs even more thankless than they already are. More importantly, it has come at the cost of undercutting the quality of play that we witness most nights at the ballpark.

I sometimes wonder if sportswriters watch the same game that we do. In the Sunday edition of the New York Post, Yankee beat writer George King wrote the following as part of his gloom-and-doom assessment of the 2008 Yankees. “There was nothing wrong with Andy Phillips and Doug Mientkiewicz [at first base], but the Yankees got rid of them,” wrote King in the Post. “Instead, they are looking at [Shelley] Duncan, Wilson Betemit, Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg. How long before [Alex] Rodriguez complains about not having a glove guy saving him errors?”
My goodness, what is King talking about? There was nothing wrong with Phillips and Mientkiewicz? Phillips had a .338 on-base percentage and slugged at a rate of .362. Those numbers might be acceptable for a strong defensive-minded catcher, but they are putrid for a first baseman who falls well short of the Gold Glove standard. (Phillips played a good defensive first base for the Yankees, but he was never the Wes Parker-J.T. Snow clone that some portrayed him to be.) As for Mientkiewicz, he was a bit better, with an on-base of .349 and a slugging percentage of .440. Minky’s on-base percentage was respectable, and his glovework was certainly first-rate, but the rest of his game fell flat. He hit all of five home runs in 166 at-bats, offered little speed on the basepaths, and, for the third straight season, missed significant time with injuries. Nothing wrong with Phillips and Mientkiewicz. It’s difficult to find much that was right with these two below-average journeyman players.

Let’s tackle the second part of King’s assessment. He believes that A-Rod will be complaining about the lack of defensive skill displayed by the Yankees’ first baseman. First off, that’s an unnecessary swipe at A-Rod, who has rarely if ever complained about teammates’ deficiencies during his Yankee tenure. Second, the Yankees have little to worry about defensively at first base, unless they foolishly allow Jason Giambi to play the position again. The switch-hitting Betemit is likely to gain most of the playing time at first base, at least against right-handed pitchers. Betemit came up through the Braves’ system as a shortstop and has since learned how to play second base and third base. I’m sorry, but if you can play shortstop and are sufficiently tall, you can handle first base, a far less demanding position. At six feet, two inches, the athletic Betemit should have little trouble adjusting to first base. Similarly, Ensberg is a third baseman by trade. Given the demands of third base, a position that generally requires quicker reactions and a stronger throwing arm, he should find first base easier to handle. Lane, a converted outfielder, is facing long odds of making the team, and figures to be a non-factor in the first base derby. Now, I would agree that Duncan is a defensive liability at first base, but he’s likely to be a platoon player, which would severely limit the number of chances he receives at the position.

None of this analysis is meant to indicate that first base is a strength for the Yankees. Far from it, first base remains the team’s biggest concern among the regular positions in the lineup. But those concerns have little to do with the “losses” of Phillips and Mientkiewicz. Given their lack of hitting and lack of power, the Yankees can’t help but to have better production at first base in 2008…

As we near Wednesday’s congressional hearings involving Roger Clemens, let’s hope that our elected representatives minimize the grandstanding and the speechmaking, and maximize the tough questions that need to be posed to “The Rocket.” These are the kinds of questions that I want to hear after Clemens raises his right arm on Wednesday in Washington:

*In explaining your delay in responding to the Mitchell Report, why did you tell “60 Minutes” that you had no idea you were being accused by Brian McNamee when in fact you knew in advance that McNamee had made serious allegations against you? In other words, why did you lie to Mike Wallace?

*Why do you expect us to believe that McNamee told the truth about Andy Pettitte but lied about you?

*Why would you allow anyone but a medical doctor or trained nurse to inject you with anything, be it steroids, B-12, or a flu shot?

*In retrospect, do you feel guilty or regretful that you taped your phone conversation with McNamee without his knowledge?

*How much steroid use have you been aware of in baseball over the last 15 years? (And then a necessary follow-up, depending on Clemens’ answer.) If you claim to be aware of little steroid use, how does that jive with the findings of the Mitchell Report?

*Why do you continue to insist that steroids have no real effect in improving a player’s performance, contrary to the consensus of most medical experts, which states that steroids improve strength and the ability to recover from injury?…

Well, so much for Craig Wilson signing with the Mets. The veteran first baseman-outfielder has instead agreed to a minor league deal with the Reds. He’ll attend spring training as a non-roster player, but will have to contend with a difficult numbers game at first base. The Reds already have Joey Votto, Scott Hatteberg, and Andy Phillips on the depth chart, not to mention Adam Dunn, who is once again scheduled to play out of position in left field. Votto is given the inside track of being the starter, while Hatteberg could be trade bait, leaving Phillips and Wilson to battle for a backup spot on the roster.

Anyone who has read my columns here over the last three years—and I hope there are at least a few of you—knows that I place a high value on the quality of a team’s bench. In an age when managers are very cautious about injuries, and with few off days built into the relentless regular season schedule, the bench has become exceedingly important. And each manager has to rely on a smaller bench these days, because of the trend toward carrying 11, 12, or even 13 pitchers on the active roster. That means that each bench player is asked to do more, in terms of being able to play multiple roles and multiple positions.
Due in part to the changing dynamic of the bench, I’m carrying the banner for the Mets heading into the 2008 season. Yes, the addition of Johan Santana plays a huge role in my making the Mets the favorites in the National League East. It is amazing what the addition of the game’s top left-hander will do to the look of any team’s rotation. But my presence on the Mets’ bandwagon is also linked to the bench that Omar Minaya has assembled. With a cast of extra characters that could include some combination of Ramon Castro, Ruben Gotay, Damion Easley, Jose Valentin, Angel Pagan, Endy Chavez, and Marlon Anderson, the Mets have the kind of depth that should support a top-flight starting nine.

Simply put, Castro is one of the best backup catchers in the game. It wouldn’t shock me if Castro becomes part of a strict platoon with Brian Schneider—or if he becomes the No. 1 catcher by July. The infield is well covered with Gotay, who can hit well from the left side, and Easley, who has power from the right side and the versatility to play all four infield positions. Chavez might be the best No. 4 outfielder in the National League—he’s a Gold Glover at all three outfield spots and an excellent pinch-running option—while Anderson is one of the few pinch-hitting artists remaining in today’s game. If Valentin makes the team, he’ll provide some power, while backing up Luis Castillo at second base and possibly David Wright at third base.

The Mets’ bench is very good—but not perfect. Willie Randolph has a need for right-handed power (what with his lineup heavy on left-handed batters and switch-hitters) and some depth behind the aging Carlos Delgado at first base. Ideally, the Mets could use one additional bench player to fill both roles. If Delgado’s bat continues to slow, as it did in 2007, the Mets have no viable everyday options. Other than depth in the bullpen, the lack of production at first base looms as the Mets’ Achilles heel.

Along those lines, the Mets have expressed some interest in the unemployed Craig Wilson. He was miserable with the Braves and the White Sox’ top farm clubs last summer, but is only two seasons removed from a productive four-month stretch with the Pirates. When healthy, the “Blond Bomber” has the kind of right-handed power that could prove useful against the league’s left-handed starters. He also has the ability to play the outfield corners, while also serving as an emergency third-string catcher.

The Mets will be scanning the waiver wires and trade markets this spring for other options. If Morgan Ensberg can’t crack the Yankee roster, he would become a logical fit for the Mets. If the Orioles continue their youth movement, they could trade Kevin Millar; the Mets will surely listen. And then there’s Josh Phelps, who is facing the task of having to make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster as a little-used backup to Albert Pujols. Phelps was terrific for the Pirates during the second half last season, then needlessly dumped by a team that seems to have little direction.

If the Mets can acquire that one final piece as a hedge against Delgado’s decline, they might just be able to boast of having the best bench in either league.

***

On a personal note, I received some good news this week. I’ve been accepted as a presenter at the annual Cooperstown Baseball Symposium, scheduled for the first week in June at the National Baseball Hall of Fame. I’ll be discussing the 1968 world champion Tigers and their relationship to the civic unrest that engulfed the city of Detroit in the late 1960s.