Hall of Fame Predictions

We know the obvious. Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn, Sr. will enter the Hall of Fame with flying colors on Tuesday. What is less certain is the percentage of the vote that each man will receive, along with the far more important question: will anyone else gain the required 75 per cent of the vote and join them at the induction podium here in Cooperstown in late July? Based on conversations I’ve had with Hall of Fame staffers and other baseball historians, I’ve tried to come up with some reasonable guesses.

In recent days, there has been speculation as to whether Ripken would become the first unanimous electee in the history of the Hall of Fame voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Thanks to a sanctimonious writer named Paul Ladewski, who has already said that he submitted a blank ballot in protest of the so-called "Steroid Era," we know that Ripken and Gwynn will come up at least a little short of 100 per cent. (Not only has Ladewski thrown a blanket of guilt over every player from the 1990s—even the ones who have never fallen under the category of reasonable suspicion—he apparently doesn’t feel that Alan Trammell, Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven, Rich Gossage, or Lee Smith are worthy of Cooperstown consideration either, even though all played in the pre-steroids era. I think Mr. Ladewski’s standards are so ridiculously high, and his intentions so pretentious, that he should recuse himself from future Hall of Fame votes; perhaps the BBWAA would have the good sense to do that for him.)

In moving on to a more pressing matter, some have wondered whether anyone else has a chance of joining Gwynn and Ripken as the third member of the Class of 2007. Only one man realistically has a shot—and it’s an outside one at that. Goose Gossage, who frankly deserved induction before Bruce Sutter, will come the closest. Originally, I thought Gossage would fall back from his 64 per cent showing last year, to somewhere in the 60 to 63 per cent range, because of the presence of names like Gwynn, Ripken, and Mark McGwire on this year’s ballot. But after talking with one Hall of Fame official, I think The Goose will finish stronger. Last year’s election of Sutter has convinced some voters to make Gossage hall-worthy. I think Gossage will come in at over 70 per cent, making it a close run, but will ultimately fall short of the 75 per cent minimum. So will Jim Rice, who actually finished one vote ahead of Gossage last year, but will be hurt significantly more by the presence of the Gwynns and Ripkens and will likely finish with less than the 64 per cent he received a year ago.

And where does all of this leave Mark McGwire? There’s no longer any suspense about making it in 2007—he won’t come close to 75 per cent—but there is a level of curiosity over what percentile he will achieve. Based on what I’ve been reading, Big Mac will fall in line somewhere between 25 and 30 per cent of the vote. That will leave him a long way from election, but will at least guarantee him the minimum 5 per cent that is needed to remain on the ballot.

Of the other first-year eligibles, I believe only two will garner the minimum 5 per cent. They are Harold Baines, one of the forgotten standout hitters of the 1980s, and Bret Saberhagen, a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Everyone else, including Jose Canseco, Tony Fernandez, and Paul O’Neill, will drop from the ballot after the Tuesday vote. Steve Garvey, by the way, is on the ballot for the 15^th and final time. After a three-year-layoff, he’ll move on to the Veterans Committee ballot.