Twisting the Yankees vs. the Red Sox

Steven Goldman of the YES Network is a talented writer who can turn a phrase and has an in-depth knowledge of American history, though I can do without his irrelevant political leanings. Unfortunately, when it comes to common baseball sense, he is wrong too often, from his obsession with Joe Torre’s age to his claim that the Yankees didn’t have a good backup catcher behind Thurman Munson (hey, what about Cliff Johnson and Johnny Ellis?) And when it involves the Yankees’ roster, Goldman is the ultimate prophet of gloom, except when it comes to defending the struggles of Alex Rodriguez.

In his most recent column at YES, Goldman did a comparison of the offenses of the Yankees and the Red Sox, and determined that Boston actually has the advantage. This makes for good copy, in that it runs counter to what most of the media establishment is writing about the Yankees and the Red Sox. Yet, Goldman’s analysis on this subject is flawed on several counts.

*Goldman bases most of his analysis on the PECOTA projection system espoused by Baseball Prospectus (BP)—and this is a large part of the problem. PECOTA might be more accurate than a high-powered microscope, but it has little credibility with a number of internet writers because Prospectus absolutely refuses to explain the criteria and methods used in determining the PECOTA formula. All other Sabermetric prediction systems reveal their formulas, but not BP. Their attitude on PECOTA has always been, "Trust us, it works." Sorry, that doesn’t fly in an era of analysis and insight. Without an explanation of what makes PECOTA tick, it earns about as much credibility as Jeanne Dixon’s old astrological predictions.

*According to Goldman, the Yankees rate advantages offensively at only third base, shortstop, and second base. Curiously, Goldman doesn’t seem to believe that the Yankees are better at catcher or center field, despite the fact that Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon were eminently more productive in 2006 than Jason Varitek and the injury-riddled Coco Crisp, respectively. Maybe Varitek will bounce back at age 35, and then again maybe he’ll be so close to retirement by mid-season that rookie George Kottaras will have to start. As for Crisp, I think he’ll be a much better player in 2007, but even at his peak, he’s never had an on-base percentage above .345. Damon hasn’t had an OBP that low since 2003. As for power, Crisp has put together slugging percentages below .400 three times in five years. Damon has had sub-.400 slugging percentages three times in 12 seasons. Sorry, but I’ll take Damon.

*According to the article’s rankings, J.D. Drew will have a better season than Bobby Abreu in right field. This is highly debatable, given Drew’s tendency to miss 30 or 40 games at a clip every other season. Some of Drew’s games-played totals are frightful: 104, 109, 100, 72. As for Abreu, he’s never played fewer than 151 games since becoming a regular. Conservatively, I’d call right field a draw, with Abreu’s ability to stay healthy giving the Yankees the far more comfortable posture.

*Much of Goldman’s gloom and doom is based on the decided advantage that the Red Sox have at first base, with Kevin Youkilis over Doug Mientkiewicz. Now, I was against the Mientkiewicz signing as much as anyone, but I have serious doubts that he will stay healthy enough to serve as much of a drag on the offense. He’s only managed to play 178 games the last two seasons, for an average of 89 games. If that’s the case again in 2007, either Andy Phillips or Josh Phelps will pick up additional at-bats, and either of those is capable of improving on Minty’s skimpy numbers. And then there’s always the possibility of adding reinforcements. Let’s remember that it’s easier to find mid-season help at first base than just about any other position. So while the first base situation is a concern right now, it may not be a lasting one.

*As part of his evaluation, Goldman takes into account the team’s benches—and that’s a good thing to do. With Wily Mo Pena, the Red Sox have an advantage, a power hitter in reserve, something the Yankees are lacking. However, in rating the team’s backup catchers, Goldman lists Raul Chavez. Well, I’ve got news for you. Of the three main candidates to back up Posada, Chavez has the least chance of making the team, behind Wil Nieves and Todd Pratt. Now I don’t think much of either Nieves or Pratt either, but it’s a bit disingenuous to list Chavez, by far the worst of the three hitters here, in this evaluation. Goldman’s seems to be doing this only to enhance his thesis that the Red Sox have the better offense—and that’s misleading.

While I think the Red Sox have a very good offense, I see little evidence that their offense stacks up as well as New York’s. Frankly, the Yankees’ offense is the least of their concerns right now, well behind that of starting pitching and defensive range in the field. If this Yankees lineup isn’t good enough to win the American League East, then maybe it will be time to bring in an offensive coordinator. Lack of offensive talent, for sure, is not the problem.