Postseason Notebook--World Series Lidlifter

Yes, the Red Sox should be favored to win the World Series, but it’s slightly ridiculous that they’ve been made 2 and a half-to-1 favorites to end the Rockies’ miraculous run. The Red Sox aren’t that much better than the Rockies, especially given how good Colorado’s defense, pitching, and clutch hitting have been throughout the postseason. Colorado’s best chance of pulling off the upset would be to slay the dragons early—win the Series in five games, before it has a chance to go back to Fenway Park for Games Six and Seven. That would mean the Rockies realistically need to beat Josh Beckett in either Game One or Game Five, and sweep the second, third, and fourth games. Is that likely to happen? Probably not, but it is possible given how torrid the Rockies have been over the last month.

More likely, the Red Sox will win the series because of their superior starting pitching, a more feared middle of the order (the Sox have two behemoths in Ortiz and Ramirez while the Rockies have only one in Holliday), and the home field advantage of Fenway. I also like the managerial matchup for Boston; beginning with that 2004 ALCS comeback against the Yankees, Francona has been a brilliant postseason manager. He also keeps his players relaxed, something that Eric Wedge wasn’t able to do with the Indians. So I’ll pick the Red Sox in six, with Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching well enough in the final game to turn a lead over to the bullpen…

Now for some random thoughts on the Series… Clint Hurdle is being very secretive about his choice of DH for the Fenway games, but I would think Ryan Spilborghs would be the selection. As a part-time starter, Spilborghs compiled a formidable 363 on-base percentage and a respectable .485 slugging percentage during the regular season. He’s also another right-handed threat at Fenway, as opposed to the lefty-swinging Corey Sullivan, a singles hitter who doesn’t walk or hit home runs…

And what will Terry Francona do with David Ortiz during the three middle games of the Series? I believe the smart approach would be to put Ortiz at first base, shift Kevin Youkilis to right field, and sit down J.D. Drew, especially in Game Five against Jeff Francis. Youkilis and Ortiz are central to the Red Sox’ offense, whereas Drew is a complementary piece…

Finally, I understand the Rockies’ desire to reward Aaron Cook with a roster spot, but they’re making a mistake removing Franklin Morales from the rotation. Morales is the kind of hard-throwing lefty that could give Ortiz, Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury problems, especially since they’ve never seen him pitch. Given the lack of familiarity and Morales’ power repertoire, he would have been a better choice than Cook as a shutdown pitcher in either Game Three or Four.