Postseason Notebook--October 9, 2008

As the two franchises resurrect a playoff rivalry that reached its heights during the seventies and eighties, the Phillies appear to have a distinct advantage over the Dodgers in the 2008 National League Championship Series. They had by far the better record during the regular season, played much tougher competition within their division, and scored significantly more runs. Well, not so fast. The Dodgers have better pitching and a proven playoff-winning manager in future Hall of Famer Torre. Given all of these factors, this series looks exceedingly even-matched to me, giving us the distinct possibility of a Game Seven, winner-take-all situation.

For the Phillies to win, they really need to claim the games started by staff ace Cole Hamels, who is the best pitcher on either staff. If Hamels can win the first and fifth games, that leaves the Phillies needing only two wins on days when Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Bulldog Blanton are starting. The non-Hamels games will be tougher ones for Philadelphia, since the pitching matchups against Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and an unannounced starter  (either Greg Maddux or Clayton Kershaw) figure to be relative tossups. I also wonder how the lefty-throwing Moyer will fare against a Dodger lineup that has right-handed studs like Russell Martin, Manny Ramirez, and Matt Kemp.

Another key factor will involve the run differential in the games. The closer the games, the more I like Torre, who is a supremly underrated postseason skipper and should have the tactical advantage against a less strategic Charlie Manuel. While Manuel has done an exceedingly good job for the Phils over the last two seasons, his strength has never been one-upping his managerial counterparts. His handling of the bullpen sometimes leaves something to be desired, while Torre's preference for concentrating his innings on his better relievers makes good sense in the postseason, if not as much during the regular season.

All in all, this series looks like it has a chance to match the intensity of those Phillies-Dodgers matchups from 1976 to '78. The names have changed, from Pete Rose, Steve Garvey, and Mike Schmidt to Ryan Howard, Manny Ramirez, and Chase Utley, but the talent level, the caliber of competition, and the ultimate stakes remain high. Let's go with the Phillies in seven, as we finally find a postseason series that manages to go the distance.